… on the Wall of the Cave.
There are two famous quotes, or rather compilations and paraphrasings of quotes, on the subject of dealing with the perception of reality, by Ayn Rand (of whom, by the way, I have read nothing else), which I find among the most important insights of modern time:
A. You may ignore reality, but not the consequences of ignoring reality.
More elaborate (edited): “You are free to ignore reality, you are free to stumble blindly down any path you want. But you are not free to avoid the abyss that you refuse to see.”
B. There are no real contradictions. If there seem to be any, you will find that one of your assumptions was wrong.
Well, at least one of your assumptions.
And you might even find that by breaking down the decision chain into a series of single and binary "Is that necessarily so? yes/no" decisions.
But here is one that everybody misses:
The very first assumption of all is that you are dealing with reality.
At all.
You are not.
No one ever is. That is why Black Swan Events happen.
Every living being capable of a decision or even just a reaction is dealing with reality the way it perceives it:
Its picture or perception of reality, not reality itself.
In fact, your brain makes up most of what it sees and hears, and much of what it feels.
It is always interpreting what it sees as the reflection of the shadows of things moving between a flickering fire and the uneven wall of the cave you are chained to watch.
[Which, by the way, begs further questions: If, and if so, how, two or more people, seeing the same, are reliably interpreting it similarly enough to rely upon in everyday interaction, such as traffic; i.e. if we should not be talking of genetically synchronized pattern production within the brain, not recognition. Which would also by the way then be true for all living beings.]
The question is:
How accurate is your interpretation of the shadow of the flame? Your picture of reality within your head or nervous system?
For if you miss your target - or a danger signal - then your interpretation of reality was wrong:
The fly that mistook the frog for a misshapen leaf was wrong. The rabbit that cannot see the two contradicting lateral movements of the patterns on a snake writhing in a bee-line right towards one of its eyes as anything than a lateral wind in the gras, while completely missing the steadily growing proximity of the snake’s head, is misinterpreting reality.
This is not trivial.
It is, in most cases, a matter of life and death - like for the prey to die or the predator to starve.
And any living creature that gets caught in a trap assumed there wasn't one - or thought that it could get out.
The first clue, to reverse Ayn Rand, that one of your assumptions is wrong is often a contradiction in your perceptions - as in: "The wind is moving the gras in opposite directions, but there is no wind".
Or perhaps that something should have succeeded (or failed) - and it did not.
Or, quite frequently, you are making or working under the premise of hidden assumptions that you are not even aware of - and these are the most dangerous (such as “I thought this gun was (not) loaded”).
So, people may think Ayn Rand's quote is just a bit of cleverness - like her compiled statement that you may ignore reality, but only at your own peril, as the consequences will be inevitable.
But then the reason you ignored reality is because, to put it into her own words, one or more of your assumptions was wrong: either as to what reality itself was, or as to what the consequences of your ignorance would be.
It is important that
A) this sequence comes in (precisely?) two steps,
Step 1: You ignore reality by making a wrong assumption
Step 2: The consequences hit you
B) there is always a time lapse between the steps 1 and 2, in which you may sometimes reassess the situation, but remain unable to change what has already taken place.
This time lapse may be large or small; a millisecond, as in the case of a firearm being touched off, a few seconds, as in the case of a jump from a tall building, or maybe thirty years, as in some biological or economical situations. Or even longer, in some historical contexts.
And, barring experience, it is impossible to tell in advance, just from the nature of the cause, how long the time lapse will be for the effect to set in. Theoretically, and barring faith, not even with experience.
But, in a way, even that does not matter:
For as you cannot change the past, this time lapse prohibits the rectification of the cause, or put more simply: There is no turning back to the status quo ante.
Ever.
Once you have taken that step, the consequences will hit you, no matter how long it takes, because you cannot undo the cause; and feelings safe just because "nothing has happened yet" is concentrating on the "yet" - not yet - and this has no implications for the future.
And that goes for every single step along the way.
In greater context, this combination of misinterpretation of reality and consequential time lapse translates into a Seneca Curve or Seneca Cliff:
Note that, on this curve, you cannot tell where you are at any given point just by analyzing your position - on the brink of sudden collapse or still far away, still steadily ascending to beauty, wealth and power - before it is too late.
For instance, this graph describes, as a proxy, the rise and fall of the population of ethanol-producing yeast bacteriae in a vat:
Though regularly suffocating on their own waste, life seems fine and “the economy is growing”, until some hitherto unknown limit is reached - and death comes suddenly - and unexpectedly.
Note that this is taking place under optimal conditions for the bacteriae - a limitless food supply and no predators or rivals.
Especially under optimal conditions.
That this phenomenon can be observed in vertebrae as well was confirmed in the rat- and- mouse- experiments of John B. Calhoun back in the last century:
Again, there is no telling, from any point of view of your own position on the ascending curve, at what point this curve will suddenly flatten, or, on the flat part, when it will suddenly take a dive - and so, simply from where you are, when to take precaution, as everything seems to be going just dandy - until it is too late to do so.
There is no warning sign.
What you however can do, of course, is to interpret what has happened before, and when, and from that draw your own conclusions for the future.
If you have a memory. For, as you know:
Those who are unable to learn from their history are forced to repeat it.